Federal budget

bill-morneauI don’t mind the budget deficit but the amount is to high. Our debt is around 600 billion and inflation is 2% with real growth of 2%. What the Liberals have done is maintain our debt to GDP ratio at the same amount or increased it. Allowing for the debt to go up 2% gives you a deficit half of what the government is going to do. The debt goes up at the rate of inflation so in constant dollar terms it’s frozen. Since there is real growth beyond that the debt to the size of our economy actually shrinks by a small amount. The pie plate gets bigger by 2% but the pie itself remains the same and so is smaller in relation to the plate.

Reduction of the debt to GDP ratio by attrition. These days it seems the idea of something in the middle is too moderate and we end up with going to far one way or the other. Either the constipated fiscal conservatives or the “let it flow” liberal spenders.

Real Change Senate Appointments

g3403http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/senate-appointments-liberal-1.3496977

Just like Harper with Viceregal appointments the new Political Monarch (PM) creates a process for Senate appointments that doesn’t remove the PM of the day out of that process. The more things change the more the remain the same. The process is created by the PM of the day, changed by the PM, or cancelled at the pleasure of the PM and it still has the PM making the appointments so they can simply ignore the very process they create.

By an Act of Parliament the Governor-General makes Senate appointments on the advice of the House advisory council. This body is the top two candidates in each riding in the last election giving you the following membership.

Party

House seats

Council seats

% on council

Liberal

184

301

45%

Cons

99

223

33%

NDP

44

128

19%

Bloc

10

21

3%

Green

1

2

0.3%

Ind

0

1

0.1%

When a Senate seat goes vacant the two members from the same riding of any riding in that province or territory can nominate someone for appointment. The House advisory council by secret ballot votes yes or no for each candidate. To be recommended for appointment takes an absolute 2/3 majority (451) voting yes for that nominee. In the event of more then one getting 451 votes the one with the most votes is appointed. If there is a tie then the Governor-General has personal discretion to choose which of the tied nominees to appoint.

A non-partisan vote since no party can have more than 50% of the seats. The PM of the day will not create a process that removes the PM (Political Monarch) from the appointment process BECAUSE it removes the PM from the appointment process.

Super Tuesday 3

supertuesdayIt’s will be Hilllaryyyy and the DONALD!!

The chances that Senator Sanders can win everything remaining by 60%+ of the vote is non existent. All the remaining GOP primaries are winner takes all so Mr. Trump must lose most of them to be denied a majority of the delegates and virtually all of them to not have the most delegates. Do WKRP turkeys fly?

Super Tuesday 2

supertuesdayIt will be Hillary Clinton for the Democrats and Donald Trump for the Republicans, but with fine print at the bottom.

 

  1. Hillary unless Sanders can start winning most every primary by solid majorities of 10-20 points over Clinton.
  2. Donald unless he starts losing the majority of the primaries to the other candidates.

Government Formation

369px-Oireachtas_logo.svgIrish General Election February 26, 2016

On the fourth Monday after the election which in this case would be Monday March the 22nd you would have the swearing in of the Teachta Dála (members) and after that the election of the Ceann Comhairle (Speaker). On Tuesday the Speaker asks the members for nominees for Taoiseach (Prime Minister). You would need 5% of the Dail Eireann (House of Representatives) to endorse the nomination which is 8 members out of the 158. If you have more then 4 nominees the members are asked to endorse one with the top 4 with the most votes becoming a Taoiseach-designate. On Tuesday afternoon the President of Ireland invites these Taoiseach-designates to form a Council of Ministers of the required 7 to 15 members. They submit their Councils-designate to the President Wednesday morning and the President refers it to the Dail Eireann to decide which has it’s confidence to be the Government for the duration of that Oireachtas (Parliament). Wednesday afternoon the Dail Eireann votes on which of these councils becomes the government for that Oireachtas. Winner to be sworn in as the Council of Minsters the following Sunday and the runner up as the Council of Opposition just before the swearing in of the government. Any others become shadow councils in the Dail Eireann.

The process of government formation is a set procedure and the Party Leaders would have been in negotiations right after the election for support to win the vote to form the government in the new Parliament. Fine Gael and Fianna Fail could form a grand coalition government and have just with their 2 parties 99 seats out of 158. They could each form a council-designate alone and negotiate for the support of the other parties and from the 19 independents. If Sinn Fein doesn’t enter into a coalition council with the 2 main parties it could form it’s own council and be a shadow council in the next Parliament with or without voting one of the others in as the government. There is enough members for the 5 minor parties to come together to present another council choice and it also would become a shadow council in Parliament with or without voting Fine Gael or Fianna Fail in as the government.

Once a Government is elected by the House it stays in office for the duration of that Parliament. Any Minister can be voted out by a motion of dismissal with a 60% vote with quorum. The Prime Minister can be dismissed by an absolute 60% vote (95). Confidence and Non-confidence votes are abolished. A motion of government dismissal requires an absolute two-third majority vote (106). This triggers a new vote of government formation the same as at the start of Parliament. A motion of dissolution requires an absolute three-quarters majority vote (119). This will set a new election for parliament.

Using the government formation process for the Canadian federal election in October 2015.

The House meets the fourth Monday after the election. In the morning the swearing in of the members and in the afternoon the election of the Speaker of the House the Commons. The next day the House would have nominated Justin Trudeau, Rona Ambrose, and Thomas Mulcair as Prime Minister designates. No other candidates would have gotten the 17 endorsing votes necessary to get nominated. The Governor-General would have asked these 3 leaders to form a Government. In the government formation vote in the House the Liberal council would have won a majority on the first ballot with 184 votes, the Tories would be second with 99 votes, and the NDP third with 44 votes. The 11 votes held by the Bloc and Greens can’t change the result. The Liberal council gets sworn in as the Council of Ministers, the Conservatives as the Council of Opposition, and the NDP becomes a shadow council in the House of Commons.

Instead of the rigidity of a majority government or the instability of a minority government you have the Government elected at the start of Parliament and serving for the duration of that Parliament unless by super majorities the House votes to either have another Government formation vote or set another election.