Monthly Archives: March 2016

Super Tuesday 3

supertuesdayIt’s will be Hilllaryyyy and the DONALD!!

The chances that Senator Sanders can win everything remaining by 60%+ of the vote is non existent. All the remaining GOP primaries are winner takes all so Mr. Trump must lose most of them to be denied a majority of the delegates and virtually all of them to not have the most delegates. Do WKRP turkeys fly?

Super Tuesday 2

supertuesdayIt will be Hillary Clinton for the Democrats and Donald Trump for the Republicans, but with fine print at the bottom.

 

  1. Hillary unless Sanders can start winning most every primary by solid majorities of 10-20 points over Clinton.
  2. Donald unless he starts losing the majority of the primaries to the other candidates.

Government Formation

369px-Oireachtas_logo.svgIrish General Election February 26, 2016

On the fourth Monday after the election which in this case would be Monday March the 22nd you would have the swearing in of the Teachta Dála (members) and after that the election of the Ceann Comhairle (Speaker). On Tuesday the Speaker asks the members for nominees for Taoiseach (Prime Minister). You would need 5% of the Dail Eireann (House of Representatives) to endorse the nomination which is 8 members out of the 158. If you have more then 4 nominees the members are asked to endorse one with the top 4 with the most votes becoming a Taoiseach-designate. On Tuesday afternoon the President of Ireland invites these Taoiseach-designates to form a Council of Ministers of the required 7 to 15 members. They submit their Councils-designate to the President Wednesday morning and the President refers it to the Dail Eireann to decide which has it’s confidence to be the Government for the duration of that Oireachtas (Parliament). Wednesday afternoon the Dail Eireann votes on which of these councils becomes the government for that Oireachtas. Winner to be sworn in as the Council of Minsters the following Sunday and the runner up as the Council of Opposition just before the swearing in of the government. Any others become shadow councils in the Dail Eireann.

The process of government formation is a set procedure and the Party Leaders would have been in negotiations right after the election for support to win the vote to form the government in the new Parliament. Fine Gael and Fianna Fail could form a grand coalition government and have just with their 2 parties 99 seats out of 158. They could each form a council-designate alone and negotiate for the support of the other parties and from the 19 independents. If Sinn Fein doesn’t enter into a coalition council with the 2 main parties it could form it’s own council and be a shadow council in the next Parliament with or without voting one of the others in as the government. There is enough members for the 5 minor parties to come together to present another council choice and it also would become a shadow council in Parliament with or without voting Fine Gael or Fianna Fail in as the government.

Once a Government is elected by the House it stays in office for the duration of that Parliament. Any Minister can be voted out by a motion of dismissal with a 60% vote with quorum. The Prime Minister can be dismissed by an absolute 60% vote (95). Confidence and Non-confidence votes are abolished. A motion of government dismissal requires an absolute two-third majority vote (106). This triggers a new vote of government formation the same as at the start of Parliament. A motion of dissolution requires an absolute three-quarters majority vote (119). This will set a new election for parliament.

Using the government formation process for the Canadian federal election in October 2015.

The House meets the fourth Monday after the election. In the morning the swearing in of the members and in the afternoon the election of the Speaker of the House the Commons. The next day the House would have nominated Justin Trudeau, Rona Ambrose, and Thomas Mulcair as Prime Minister designates. No other candidates would have gotten the 17 endorsing votes necessary to get nominated. The Governor-General would have asked these 3 leaders to form a Government. In the government formation vote in the House the Liberal council would have won a majority on the first ballot with 184 votes, the Tories would be second with 99 votes, and the NDP third with 44 votes. The 11 votes held by the Bloc and Greens can’t change the result. The Liberal council gets sworn in as the Council of Ministers, the Conservatives as the Council of Opposition, and the NDP becomes a shadow council in the House of Commons.

Instead of the rigidity of a majority government or the instability of a minority government you have the Government elected at the start of Parliament and serving for the duration of that Parliament unless by super majorities the House votes to either have another Government formation vote or set another election.

 

Mr. Real Change

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http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/government-ads-liberals-1.3455529

As always with the change of government the new one promptly starts behaving like the previous government they criticized while in opposition. As with all these Political Monarchs (PM / Premier) “Some are better, some are worse, but in the end, they are all the same.”

There is to be created the Council of State which consists of the Council of Ministers and the Council of Opposition. This would include only those who hold the senior portfolios of the ministers of the crown as defined in an Act of Parliament and not the whim of the PM (Political Monarch) of the day. Equal number of members from both the government and the opposition of the day and presided over by the Governor-General. It would be this body that sets the rules governing the communications policy of the government of Canada and it’s departments and agencies. This requires a 2/3 majority vote of the council if introduced by the Prime Minister and the Leader of the Opposition. If introduced be just one of them then it requires a three-quarter majority vote.

Also as a direct subsidiary body you would have the Federal Government Communication Office (FGCO) charged with overseeing the implementation of federal communication policy. Chairman would be the Minister of state responsible for the FGCO and deputy chairman the opposite number in the Opposition. Also included are the minister of public service, the minister of heritage, and their opposite numbers in the Council of Opposition. At the start of each Parliament the Council of Ministers and the Council of Opposition each appoints a member of the FGCO who would serve for the duration of 3 Parliaments. Half the membership comes from the government and half from the opposition. Half are from the cabinet and the opposition council and half are appointed members with long terms of office.

The FGCO would currently have 6 Conservatives, 5 Liberals, and 1 NDP. This would include 3 Liberal ministers, 3 Conservatives in the opposition council, 3 conservative members, 2 liberal members, and 1 NDP member. The approval of the FGCO would be required for any advertising by the government of Canada and this needs the vote of 8 of the 12. Control of the Government of Canada’s website would be under the jurisdiction of the FGCO. Non partisan and not run out of the PMO and doesn’t stand a chance of happening. Some variation of the same old is all we can expect.